Week 1 - Racing Preview

So it’s finally here the first week of the new racing season and let’s start by having a look at what entries we have made this week.  These are in race order with the horse name, age, sex, race grade, race name, distance, surface, eligibility, track and race number. 

Carlisle Cullen (3yr old colt) G3 Tropical Park Derby 9f Turf Calder (3yr old only) (#11799)

OleGunnarSolskjaer (4yr filly) UG Truly Bound Handicap 1m ½f Dirt Fair Grounds (4yr + F&M)(#11802)

Emm You Eff Cee (4yr old colt) G3 Broward Handicap 1m ½f Dirt Gulfstream Park (3yr + open) (#11807)

Twilight (3yr old filly) G3 Santa Ysabel Stakes 1m ½f Dirt Santa Anita (3yr old fillies) (#11810)

Forever Eighteen (3yr old filly) G3 Santa Ysabel Stakes 1m ½f Dirt Santa Anita (3yr old fillies) (#11810)

Decode (3yr old colt) UG Second Chance Stakes 5f Turf Calder  (3yr old only) (#11811)

Midnight Sun (3yr old filly) UG Starter Allowance 1m 1½f Turf Shenandoah Downs (3yr old fillies) (#11821)

You will note that there are no 2yr olds entered - this is because a) the majority of our 2yr olds will not mature until they are 3 and running them now will not prove anything, b) the 2yr old races this early in the season are too short (ie under 5f) and c) will have full fields which at that age doesn’t give a true reflection of their ability.  

Taking their chances race by race here are our predications:

Carlisle Cullen - 3rd lifetime start but due to mature this season and the indications are that he will appreciate this distance.  Predication - top 4

OleGunnarSolskjaer - has form over distance/surface but was inconsistent last season although she has been training well off season and has strengthened up.  Predication - top 6

Emm You Eff Cee - has run well in similar races but threw in the odd bad race last season and there is a chance that he will be needing further now he has matured fully.  Predication - top 6

Twilight - only her 4th lifetime start and her previous three were pretty disappointing given her breeding (Barbaro x Zenyatta). However as the great Z didn’t run until she turned 3, there is hope yet for her daughter! Prediction - to beat Forever Eighteen home!

Forever Eighteen - In the same race as Twilight and again only having her 4th lifetime start.  The indications are that she may struggle to see out the whole distance but her pedigree says that she should be fine.  However, this is her make or break run and if she doesn’t show what we need on the track it’s off to the sales.  Predication - not to finish last!

Decode - Making his racecourse debut, this colt has had a busy life before racing and we are the 4th stable to own him (not counting two stays at Endless Vista!) but his training and pedigree says that he could enjoy the soft turf over the short distance so that’s where he is trying!  Prediction - top half of field.

Midnight Sun - her 2nd racecourse start following her debut on yielding ground at the back end of her 2yr old season.  However, she is still maturing and will only see the racecourse a few times this year and this is just to keep her interested during training. Prediction - top half.

Check back on Monday to see our Post Race Analysis!

Performance

Earlier this week, I made an announcement to the forum that after several months downtime I wouldnt be able to resurrect the popular Past Performances spreadsheet. 

For those of you who are new to the game or have heard of it but were unsure of what it contained, here is a breakdown of both the history and what it contains. 

During the first season in the life of Photo Finish, a great player called Darren decided to create a highly technical and macro loaded excel sheet to convert the racefiles that contained all the data of the races run by Laurie via the software programme HRFan into an easy to read file that could allow players to track the performances of their horses. The racefiles were (are) basically numbers and codes and Darren found a way to convert these into defined texts.  This spreadsheet was simply named "Past Performances" or "PPs". 

Jump forward a season or two and Darren decided to leave the game (still missed to this day!) but kindly allowed me to have his files in order to continue providing this service to other players. Before leaving he had set up another tracking programe called "Stable Master" which was going to be the successor to the PPs system.  However despite many attempts to get him to stay even just as our resident tech guru, he left. (At this stage I should mention that Darren is Australian and that had a bearing on how he translated distances and weights).

In the last few years (both PF and Real), I have been happy to carry on Darren's legacy and have provided Laurie the PP spreadsheet soon after the race results were available so that we could all track our horses during the season. However, after a catostrophic hard drive failure earlier this year of my backup drive which I kept all my PPs information on, I lost all ability on my main desktop to run the PPs which meant that for a large chunk of the season they were not updated.  Then I resurrected an old laptop and for a while got that to keep the PPs going.  Typically, this then decided that it could no longer live in the world and curled its cyber toes up and passed on! And being a bit blonde, I hadnt had the foresight to back up that drive!

After purchasing a nice swanky and very large 1TB back up, I spent a lot of the off season trying to get the PPs to work on the new file but to no avail.  This has both frustrated the heck out of me and despressed me in equal measure and I felt there was no other recourse but to annouce the death of the PPs on the forum. 

And so typically, after doing the announcment, I tried one last time to get the programme to run and found a line in the debug that I hadnt noticed before!  So changing a couple of file locations in the macros and creating a new sub folder it worked!!!  

So now those who havent used it before are probably asking - but why is it important? The simple reason is because it can show you how your horse performed without the need to view the race. The converted code to texts can be broken down to the following headings (which are all filterable): 

Horse Name - simple and filterable :) 

Age - Simple again!

Stable Name - this can now allocate the correct stable owner to a horse even if he sold several times

Race Name - this can allow you to compare one race at a time

Track - a handy tool by the end of the season to track if a horse has a preference for a certain track 

Cl - Class of race (ie UG - G1) 

Distance - in metres (200m = 1f so a 5f race translates to 1000m etc)

Surface - its either Dirt or Turf!!

Rating - How the surface is riding, ie firm for turf or fast for dirt (with other variables) and being filtered you can track how your horse performs on different track varients

PP - Post Position (pretty irrelevant but its there none the less!)

Wtg - Weight (in kgs)

Finish - Simple where the horse finished 

Margin - how far in front the winning horse was and after that how far behind each horse was in relation to the winner

Power Speed Rating (PSR) - possibly the most important bit of info! Laurie has now put this into each horses race info but these will change over the course of a horses life as they mature/peak/decline so keep an eye out on them

Time - Finishing time of each horse (TR for a track record or WR for a world record)

Bookies Odds - the odds generated by HRFan and pretty redundant

Earnings - First four finishers will earn money but this is not added up over the season as this sheet is started from scratch each week

Race No - It is what is is!

Date - Date race was run according to HRFan

Likes Track - This isnt on Laurie's link on the horses page and this may differ from the AR but it is an important tool in placement of the horse - if its says NO! then dont run it on similar in the future! (Some horses will hate everything so then you just run it anyway!)

Speed - What HRFan considers the horses speed rating to be ranging from POOR right through to EXCELLENT and this can change like PSRs during the season/lifetime of each horse.

Distance - As for Speed above with the same range. 

And that folks is what PPs are all about!!

Debut Runners - 2yr olds

When we originally planned our breedings for this group of racers, we didnt think we would end up with 27 of them!

This number has come from a combination of homebreds and sales purchases but all have an equal chance of making it big during this their first year as racehorses proper.

Again, we have split these into Fillies and Colts with the emphasis on AR over pedigree.

Comments are welcome if you disagree with our choices and we hope that at least one of them will be in the top ten by the end of the year :)



Fillies

FightingKentuckian - despite the butch name this horse is all girl!  The reports so far from the trainer indicate that she is going to be most effective over a mile but that could be either over turf or dirt and the suggestion is to try her on both in a racing environment which means she wont be out till mid/end of season.  However, she will be around for a long time so no need to rush.


Rio Grande -  a sentimental favourite due to her breeding being by our foundation stallion, Skim the Hill and out of Dancing Delaware our blue hen mare, here is one horse that looks like she will fulfil her promise.  With her long term aim being the Oaks at 3, she will be run sparingly over 8f+ this year but another who will be at home equally on turf or dirt but to start with she will be kept close to home to run on turf.


Solar System - another non-BD bred picked up from Glenmore for just over $300,000.  The early indications are that she will be running over a mile on dirt in the US with a chance of her taking in some sprints early in the season.  

Colts

AngelAndTheBadman  - an unusual entry in our list as this is a sprinter but being out of Skim the Hill and a winning mile dam, there is a good chance it will be the 7f range of sprinting that is his calling (or maybe even a slow run mile). Having trained once on the dirt this one wont be returning to it in a hurry!


Red River - a nice (hopefully) early type despite his need for a lungful of track.  More at home on turf but he has trained OK on our dirt course so if the opportunity arose for a brief visit to the States then we will take it.  
 The Shootist - despite the breeder being listed as Bally Doyle, this horse is all Otesgo Farms :) Sired by Nightwing and out of the War Machine mare, Rogue, this fellow will attempt to be one of our TC representatives next season but for this opener will be concentrating on learning his job (but as he is showing speed on turf there is a chance he will move to the English TC!).

Yellow Ribbon - Another horse that is currently earmarked for both the English and US TCs as he has been tearing the training tracks up on both surfaces and the trainer is quietly confident that given a proper education this season we will reap the benefits next. Another out of our foundation stallion Skim The Hill, we hope that he can make his daddy proud.

And thats it folks!!

No prizes though for guessing the theme for this batch of foals :)

Spotlight - Classic Contenders

You may not recognise this trophy but its one that we as a stable try to win every year - the Epsom Derby.  In this years Classic Crop we may have one or two that may be contenders and these are highlighted below.

Despite having 18 3yr olds, those who ran at 2 didnt exactly cover themselves in glory!  That said, our breeding programe is focused on producing horses for their 3yr old season rather than early 2yr olds. Also now with more races at our preferred classic (10f+) distance, more will have a chance to shine (or off to the sales they go!!)

Fillies

Clair de Lune  - a tall rangy filly who won the G1 Fillies Mile on only her second lifetime start, we hope to be seeing her compete at Newmarket in the G1 1000 Guineas and her campaign will be based around that race and she will also be staying close to home to race at the distance.  We may try to go 9f with her but not until after the Guineas.

Bella Swan - a filly bred to excel over extreme distances who in reality loves Stakes races at 6f!  However she rounded her season out with some respectable efforts (including a maiden win in TR time) over the dirt sprinting scene and will be shipped over to the US to take in more of the same.  No G1s for her but she is a realiable little gal who will do well in her sphere.

Forks Washington - an interesting filly here being unraced at 2 as she wants at least 10f on the green stuff and there wasnt much of that going around in her 2yr old season!  Her first few races will be fact finding missions but we will start at 10f and work our way up hopefully to the English Oaks to see if she can replicate RememberNinetyNine's win in last year.

Colts

Emmett - bit of a change here - a non-BD bred!  He wont be going for the TC races as he has (like Bella Swan) shown a preference for the dirt sprints and thats where he will stay.  He shipped out to California last week and is enjoying the sun on his back in readiness for the new season.  Watch out for him in the Stakes/G3 where he may rack up a nice sequence :)


Pineapple Express - again a non-BD bred colt and like Forks Washington, unraced at 2. An unknown both on breeding but being by Nightwing whose offspring last year were pretty amazing, it is hoped that he can go for the top 10f-12f turf races here in Europe. If not then its off to the sales!

Spotlight - Older Racers

As the new season rapidly approaches, I thought it might be worth highlighting the racers that are expected to step up and keep Bally Doyle's name in the top ranks! (No pressure there then!)

As at the start of the season we only have 7 older horses (2 x 5yr olds and 5 x 4yr olds) and from this small bunch, most will be competing at the lower levels but we expect the following to be at the top level:

The Fates - a solid millionaire now in his 5th year who rounded out last season by finishing 3rd over a mile in both the BC Mile (G1T) and Hong Kong Mile (G1T). Not bad for a horse who was bought back for $5k from Hutton Horse Haven mid season! Expect to see him being campaigned over a mile on turf but mainly in Europe.

RememberNinetyNine - a great mare who was campaigned at the highest level throughout the season and rarely disappointed. Winner of both the Epsom and Yorkshire Oaks over 12f (turf) she will be returning to the track at the same grade and distance with an eye on the BC F&M Turf at the end of the season being her ultimate aim.

Whilst not every horse can be G1 contenders, we hope that both Champions Dream and Emm You Eff Cee can progress into reliable racers and will be campaigned overseas on dirt.